Open Source has been around for a while, but it’s only been ten years since the definition of Open Source has been published. The Open Source Definition is used by the Open Source Initiative to determine whether or not a software license can be considered open source. The definition was based on the Debian Free Software Guidelines, written and adapted primarily by Bruce Perens.
To mark the ten year anniversary, Bruce Perens published a blog entry summarizing the state of Open Source. Perens started his count at zero and in his blog refers to the end of Decade Zero and the start of Decade One for Open Source.
2008, the first year of Open Source’s Decade One looks to be one of great change. Raven Zachary of The 451 Group says that 2008 will see Open Source business models prove themselves, both good and bad. “The wave of open-source startups that began in 2004 will start to see a shakeout as some business models fail,” he said. “A number of these startups will be running out of Series A and B funding soon, and I expect to see some open-source startup failures in 2008. Watch for low multiple acquisitions too, as admissions of failure.”
Zachary also predicts that while there will be a lot of open source companies going under or being acquired, the idea of Open Source is only gaining momentum. More established vendors are picking up the idea and combining the use of Open Source in interesting ways with their current offerings. A lot of code that was once proprietary will move into the open-source arena.
The next decade may prove even more interesting than the first.
